Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean NewcombPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Dingler homered to center (430 feet).1–4
- 6Rogers singled to center, Outman scored.1–3
- 6Outman singled to right, Torkelson scored, Outman safe at second on throwing error by right fielder B. Montgomery.1–2
- 5Dingler singled to right, McKinstry scored, McGonigle to third.1–1
- 1Antonacci homered to right center (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML CHW +108 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- DET: Elo 58.9%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -118
- CHW +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +15 | CHW: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +62 Elo | DET 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 24th of 3015–23 | Road vs home | 19–1611th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 148820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–35 | 34–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–29–2 | 33–38–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 16–27 DET in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 43.