Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kahlil WatsonBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Antonacci singled to center, B. Montgomery scored and Peters scored. Cleveland Guardians challenged call on the field was upheld.5–6
- 9Manzardo hit sacrifice fly to center, Bailey scored, Rocchio to third. Cleveland Guardians challenged call on the field was overturned.5–4
- 9Bailey singled to right, Bazzana scored.4–4
- 7Antonacci singled to right, B. Montgomery scored.3–4
- 7Hoskins singled to center, Bazzana scored, Watson to third.3–3
- 7Watson singled to right, Kwan scored and Schneemann scored, Bazzana to third.2–3
- 6Grichuk homered to left (374 feet).0–3
- 3Benintendi singled to left, Antonacci scored, Vargas to third.0–2
- 2B. Montgomery doubled to left, Meidroth scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML CLE -110 / CHW -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CHW: Elo 47.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHW -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 24–122nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Elo rating | 147527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–38 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40 | 44–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 24–15 CHW in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 39.