Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luisangel AcunaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Vierling singled to right, Greene scored, Keith to second, Torkelson to third.4–5
- 10Torkelson singled to left, Carpenter scored, Greene to third.4–4
- 10Peters hit sacrifice fly to right, Gonzalez scored.4–3
- 9Dingler singled to left, Jones scored, McGonigle to third.3–3
- 8Dingler homered to left center (384 feet).3–2
- 7Peters hit a ground rule double, B. Montgomery scored, Quero to third.3–1
- 6Acuña homered to center (416 feet), Peters scored.2–1
- 5McKinstry singled to center, Keith scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML CHW -101 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- DET: Elo 53.5%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 25th of 3015–24 | Road vs home | 20–1610th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 27th of 301476 | Elo rating | 149018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–36 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 34–25 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–30–2 | 33–39–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 16–28 DET in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 44.