Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caminero singled to left, Aranda scored, Mullins to third.12–5
- 9Mullins singled to left, Walls scored, Aranda to second.12–4
- 9Aranda singled to center, Simpson scored, Walls to third.12–3
- 9Rojas doubled to center, Loftin scored.12–2
- 8Caminero homered to left center (416 feet).11–2
- 8Tolbert scored on Matz wild pitch, Misner to third on wild pitch by Matz.11–1
- 8Tolbert scored on Matz wild pitch, Misner to third on wild pitch by Matz.11–1
- 8Misner doubled to right, Jensen scored, Tolbert to third.10–1
- 8Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, Perez scored.9–1
- 8Perez doubled to center, Caglianone scored and Loftin scored.8–1
- 5Caglianone homered to left center (416 feet), Loftin scored.6–1
- 5Loftin singled to left, Tolbert scored.4–1
- 5Tolbert hit sacrifice bunt, Massey scored, Tolbert to first on throwing error by pitcher McClanahan, Tolbert to third.3–1
- 1Caminero singled to center, Díaz scored, Aranda to second.2–1
- 1Caglianone homered to right (443 feet).2–0
- 1Loftin homered to left (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML KC +162 / TB -198
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- TB: Elo 55.8%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -174
- KC +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.1 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | KC: Luinder Avila: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +41 Elo | TB 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–24 | Road vs home | 26–111st of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 150612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–38 | 43–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 25–19 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40–2 | 33–38–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–10 TB in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.