Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz reached on infield single to third, Walls scored.4–3
- 9Crews homered to center (442 feet).4–2
- 5Chaparro grounded out to catcher, Ruiz scored, Wood to third.3–2
- 3Simpson singled to center, Caminero scored, Palacios to third.2–2
- 2Nuñez doubled to left, Crews scored, Lile to third.2–1
- 2Abrams homered to right center (378 feet).1–1
- 1Caminero hit sacrifice fly to right, Díaz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML WSH +108 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- TB: Elo 58.2%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -118
- WSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +57 Elo | TB 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 25–91st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 27th of 301476 | Elo rating | 150811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–30 | 43–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 25–16 |
| Underdog | 39–21 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 47–25–4 | 33–35–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–9 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.