Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Lane ThomasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thomas homered to left (407 feet).4–6
- 7Mead homered to center (424 feet), Nuñez and Chaparro scored.3–6
- 7Collins singled to left, Thomas and Witt Jr. scored.3–3
- 5Wood singled to center, Nuñez scored.1–3
- 5Witt Jr. singled to right, Tolbert scored, Thomas to third.1–2
- 3Wood hit sacrifice fly to center, Nuñez scored.0–2
- 3Nuñez tripled to right, Millas scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 56%
- ML KC +119 / WSH -143
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -129
- KC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +13 Elo | WSH 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.26th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 27th of 3012–23 | Road vs home | 15–2127th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Elo rating | 147927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–36 | 45–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38–2 | 46–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–4 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.