Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Crews homered to left (366 feet), Wood scored and García Jr. scored.3–7
- 5García Jr. singled to left, Nuñez scored and Ruiz scored, Wood to second.3–4
- 5Garcia singled to right, Witt Jr. scored and Caglianone scored.3–2
- 4Jensen reached on infield single to second, Marte scored, Loftin to third.1–2
- 3Mead singled to center, Nuñez scored and Wood scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML KC +113 / WSH -136
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -123
- KC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 5.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +7 | KC: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +34 Elo | WSH 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.27th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 27th of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 14–2129th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301482 | Elo rating | 147627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–35 | 44–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders | 32–38–2 | 45–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–3 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.