Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman homered to center (407 feet), Pages scored.4–5
- 5Tucker walked, Freeman scored, Rojas to second, Betts to third.4–3
- 5Palacios singled to right, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.4–2
- 5Caminero grounded into fielder's choice to third, Díaz scored, Mullins out at second, Aranda to third.3–2
- 5Díaz singled to center, Feduccia scored.2–2
- 5Walls hit sacrifice fly to right, Mesa Jr. scored, Feduccia to third.1–2
- 4Freeland singled to left, Call scored, Rushing to second.0–2
- 4Call singled to left, Betts scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML TB +130 / LAD -157
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.1%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -141
- TB +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +93 Elo | LAD 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 24–122nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 12th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15751st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–29 | 38–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–16 | 35–35 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34–4 | 32–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–7 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.