Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jose SiriBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Walton singled to right, Schanuel scored, Guzman to third.0–8
- 7Guzman singled to left, Adell scored, Schanuel to third.0–7
- 7Siri homered to center (431 feet), Neto scored.0–6
- 6Walton doubled to right, Guzman scored.0–4
- 6Guzman singled to center, Adell scored and Schanuel scored.0–3
- 4Adell scored on error, Schanuel safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Walls.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- TB: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +32 Elo | TB 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 16–1923rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 145429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–28 | 33–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–16 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31–4 | 34–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 13–10 LAA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.