Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Angels- Trey ManciniBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Aranda singled to right, Fortes scored, Mesa Jr. to third.3–4
- 5Aranda singled to left, Fortes scored and Simpson scored, Walls to second.2–4
- 3O'Hoppe singled to left, Madrigal scored.0–4
- 3Madrigal reached on infield single to second, Peraza scored.0–3
- 1Mancini tripled to right, Trout scored and Adell scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML TB -168 / LAA +139
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- TB: Elo 56.1%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -150
- LAA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +42 Elo | TB 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 15–1925th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 145229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–27 | 32–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–15 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30–4 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 13–9 LAA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.