Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Victor Mesa Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Angels- Donovan WaltonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mesa Jr. homered to right center (406 feet), Feduccia scored.8–3
- 8Feduccia singled to right, Palacios scored.6–3
- 8Caminero homered to left (374 feet), Mullins scored.5–3
- 5Adell singled to left, Porter scored, Siri to third.3–3
- 5Walton homered to right center (386 feet).3–2
- 4Williamson homered to center (394 feet).3–1
- 3Simpson singled to center, Aranda scored and Mesa Jr. scored, Mullins to second.2–1
- 2Guzman singled to left, Adell scored, Schanuel to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -125 / LAA +104
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- TB: Elo 55.2%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -113
- LAA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | TB: Casey Legumina: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +36 Elo | TB 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 17–1923rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 13th of 301506 | Elo rating | 145729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–29 | 34–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–16 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32–4 | 34–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 13–11 LAA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.