St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Justin BruihlPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte scored, Perez to second on passed ball by Crooks.6–14
- 8Marte scored on a passed ball by Crooks, Perez to second on passed ball by Crooks.6–14
- 7Thomas singled to center, Collins scored.6–13
- 7Pagés hit sacrifice fly to right, Jordan scored.6–12
- 7Fermín grounded out to shortstop, Winn scored, Jordan to third.5–12
- 6Perez homered to left (385 feet).4–12
- 5Fermín singled to right, Winn scored.4–11
- 4Loftin doubled to left, Jensen scored and Marte scored.3–11
- 4Caglianone homered to left center (402 feet), Tolbert scored.3–9
- 4Walker reached on infield single to shortstop, Jordan scored, Herrera to second, Fermín to third.3–7
- 2Marte doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.2–7
- 2Witt Jr. singled to right, Thomas scored, Witt Jr. to second.2–6
- 2Thomas doubled to left, Massey scored.2–5
- 2Massey safe at first, Collins scored on error, Massey to second on on fielding error by left fielder Velázquez.2–4
- 2Collins doubled to left, Jensen scored.2–3
- 2Jensen doubled to left, Perez scored.2–2
- 1Witt Jr. homered to left center (419 feet).2–1
- 1Burleson hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored.2–0
- 1Walker grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wetherholt scored, Herrera safe at third on fielding error by shortstop Witt Jr.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML STL -105 / KC -114
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- KC: Elo 49.5%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.5 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +3 Elo | STL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 17–2125th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–27 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 12–20 |
| Underdog | 36–16 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 30–37–5 | 34–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–9 KC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 17.