San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting3-4
- Andre PallantePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Merrill doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.2–3
- 5Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored.1–3
- 5France singled to center, Taylor scored, France thrown out at second.1–2
- 2Church singled to right, Jordan scored.0–2
- 2Jordan doubled to left, Nootbaar scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML SD -106 / STL -114
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- STL: Elo 52.2%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +3 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +15 Elo | STL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.27th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 20–1610th of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 149915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–37 | 45–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–39–2 | 30–35–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–13 STL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.