St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Twins- Victor CaratiniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kreidler doubled to center, Keaschall scored.4–5
- 7Lewis singled to left, Kreidler scored, Clemens to second, Buxton to third.4–4
- 7Buxton singled to left, Keaschall scored, Kreidler to second.4–3
- 7Wetherholt singled to center, Fermín scored, Church to third.4–2
- 6Wetherholt homered to right (380 feet), Church scored.3–2
- 4Caratini homered to right center (411 feet), Bell scored.1–2
- 4Burleson homered to right (397 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML STL -103 / MIN -117
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 45.7%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -106
- STL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +30 Elo | STL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 19–1919th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 146428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–25 | 35–37 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders | 30–33–5 | 42–24–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–4 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.