St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lee homered to right (382 feet).8–9
- 8Lewis homered to left (394 feet).8–8
- 8Fermín reached on infield single to shortstop, Torres scored, Jordan to second.8–7
- 7Clemens homered to right (385 feet), Keaschall scored and Buxton scored.7–7
- 7Walker doubled to left, Burleson scored, Wetherholt scored and Herrera scored.7–4
- 7Burleson walked, Crooks scored, Herrera to second, Wetherholt to third.4–4
- 6Lewis hit sacrifice fly to center, Clemens scored.3–4
- 6Bell doubled to center, Buxton scored, Clemens to third.3–3
- 5Gray reached on infield single to shortstop, Lewis scored, Caratini to third.3–2
- 2Wetherholt singled to right, Winn scored, Jordan to third.3–1
- 2Jordan singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Winn to second.2–1
- 1Buxton homered to center (425 feet).1–1
- 1Burleson homered to right center (419 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML STL +118 / MIN -142
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.1%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +10 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +6 Elo | STL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 18–1819th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 146528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–25 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders | 28–33–5 | 40–24–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–3 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.