St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bell grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lee scored, Gray out at second, Larnach to third.9–6
- 8Clemens singled to center, Martin scored, Buxton to third.9–5
- 7Jordan homered to left center (418 feet), Nootbaar scored and Burleson scored.9–4
- 7Walker homered to left (454 feet).6–4
- 7Herrera homered to left (403 feet).5–4
- 5Keaschall homered to left (371 feet), Kreidler scored.4–4
- 4Lewis homered to left (366 feet).4–2
- 4Buxton homered to center (420 feet).4–1
- 2Winn hit sacrifice fly to center, Pagés scored.4–0
- 2Pagés doubled to right, Jordan scored.3–0
- 1Herrera homered to left center (417 feet), Winn scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML STL -111 / MIN -108
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- STL: Elo 53.8%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -101
- MIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −15 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +26 Elo | STL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 19–1818th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 146628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–25 | 35–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 34–16 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33–5 | 41–24–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–4 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.