San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-3
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Jimmy CrooksBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Burleson doubled to right, Herrera scored.0–3
- 4Crooks doubled to center, Winn scored and Nootbaar scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 58%
- ML SD +125 / STL -151
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- STL: Elo 51.2%, market 57.5%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- SD +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.9 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | SD: Wandy Peralta: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.28th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 19–1611th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–36 | 44–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–38–2 | 30–34–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–12 STL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.