San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Merrill homered to right (423 feet), Taylor scored. challenged call on the field was upheld6–1
- 9Tatis Jr. singled to right, Song scored, Tatis Jr. out stretching at second. San Diego Padres challenged call on the field was upheld4–1
- 5Burleson singled to right, Church scored, Herrera to second.3–1
- 5Tatis Jr. doubled to center, Wagner scored.3–0
- 4Bogaerts singled to right, Machado scored.2–0
- 1Machado hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML SD +105 / STL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- STL: Elo 51.1%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.9 – 5.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | SD: Bradgley Rodriguez: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +7 Elo | STL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.26th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 21–169th of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Elo rating | 150014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–37 | 45–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–40–2 | 30–36–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–14 STL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.