St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jordan singled to right, Winn scored and Velázquez scored.5–6
- 9Winn doubled to left, Nootbaar scored.3–6
- 6Tolbert hit sacrifice fly to center, Loftin scored, Collins to third.2–6
- 5Caglianone homered to left (404 feet).2–5
- 4Collins doubled to left, Rave scored and Massey scored.2–4
- 4Massey singled to center, Caglianone scored on error, Massey safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Church.2–2
- 4Caglianone singled to center, Thomas scored.2–1
- 3Herrera singled to right, Church scored.2–0
- 1Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Herrera scored, Burleson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- STL: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −10 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 10th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 18–2124th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 16th of 301494 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–28 | 39–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 36–17 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–37–5 | 35–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–10 KC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 18.