St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Beck WayPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thomas grounded into fielder's choice to third, Perez scored, Massey to second. St Louis Cardinals challenged call on the field was upheld12–10
- 9Caglianone homered to right center (426 feet).12–9
- 6Jensen homered to left (374 feet).12–8
- 5Herrera homered to left center (414 feet), Church scored and Wetherholt scored.12–7
- 4Perez singled to center, Jensen scored, Caglianone to third.9–7
- 2Caglianone homered to center (444 feet), Collins scored.9–6
- 2Loftin homered to left center (416 feet), Misner scored.9–4
- 2Winn reached on infield single to third, Burleson scored.9–2
- 2Burleson tripled to right, Herrera scored.8–2
- 2Wetherholt homered to left (360 feet), Church scored.7–2
- 1Massey singled to right, Jensen scored and Caglianone scored.5–2
- 1Winn homered to left (410 feet), Burleson scored and Nootbaar scored.5–0
- 1Nootbaar doubled to center, Herrera scored, Burleson to third.2–0
- 1Wetherholt homered to right center.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -125 / KC +104
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- STL: Elo 46.7%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -113
- KC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +19 | STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +23 Elo | KC 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 10th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 19–2123rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 16th of 301493 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–29 | 40–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 36–17 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37–5 | 36–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–11 KC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 19.