Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jensen homered to right center (425 feet), Marte scored.2–13
- 8Caminero homered to left center (393 feet), Fortes scored and Aranda scored.0–13
- 8Fortes singled to center, Walls scored.0–10
- 8Feduccia grounded out to shortstop, Mullins scored, Walls to third.0–9
- 7Aranda doubled to right, Díaz scored.0–8
- 5Simpson doubled to center, Palacios scored.0–7
- 5Caminero homered to left (387 feet).0–6
- 4Mesa Jr. homered to right (355 feet), Mullins scored and Walls scored.0–5
- 1Caminero homered to left (372 feet), Aranda scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML KC +123 / TB -149
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TB: Elo 57.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- KC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +10 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Casey Legumina: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +54 Elo | TB 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.010th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 3015–25 | Road vs home | 27–121st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 150412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–39 | 44–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 26–20 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 39–40–2 | 35–38–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 11–11 TB in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.