Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Josh RojasBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rojas homered to right (391 feet).3–5
- 5Jensen scored on error and Caglianone scored on error, Perez safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Simpson.2–5
- 4DeLuca doubled to left, Fortes scored, Díaz to third.0–5
- 4Díaz singled to left, Walls scored, Fortes to third.0–4
- 3Aranda singled to left, Caminero scored.0–3
- 3Vilade grounded out to first, Díaz scored on throwing error by first baseman Caglianone and Fortes scored, Caminero safe at third on error.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML KC +129 / TB -156
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- TB: Elo 55.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +36 Elo | TB 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 26th of 3015–24 | Road vs home | 26–121st of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 150212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–38 | 43–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 25–20 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40–2 | 34–38–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 11–10 TB in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.