Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kahlil WatsonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Braden MontgomeryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Watson singled to left, Halpin scored, Fairchild to second.4–3
- 9Grichuk homered to left center (416 feet).3–3
- 9B. Montgomery homered to center (411 feet).3–2
- 8Bailey walked, Halpin scored, Schneemann to second, Manzardo to third.3–1
- 7B. Montgomery hit sacrifice fly to center, Teel scored.2–1
- 6Watson singled to left, Halpin scored and Rocchio scored, Manzardo to second, Watson to second, Manzardo safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Antonacci.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML CLE -111 / CHW -109
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.6%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -101
- CHW +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | 0 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Murphy (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 26–121st of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Elo rating | 147725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–38 | 40–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 45–31–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 24–17 CHW in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 41.