Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Braden MontgomeryBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gonzalez singled to left, C. Montgomery scored, B. Montgomery to second, Meidroth to third.1–2
- 7B. Montgomery grounded into fielder's choice to second, Acuña scored, Meidroth out at second.1–1
- 7Jensen singled to right, Marte scored, Collins to second, Loftin thrown out at home.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML KC +107 / CHW -128
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CHW: Elo 53.1%, market 53.7%
- Fair odds
- CHW -116
- KC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +22 Elo | CHW 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 53.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.28th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3015–27 | Road vs home | 27–132nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–41 | 41–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40–2 | 46–32–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 31–16 CHW in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 47.