Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Holliday homered to right center (389 feet), Cowser scored.6–4
- 7García Jr. homered to right center (377 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was overturned.6–2
- 5García Jr. homered to right center (401 feet), Wood scored.5–2
- 3García Jr. scored on error, Mead safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Mayo, Mead safe at second on error.3–2
- 3García Jr. doubled to center, Wood scored and Ruiz scored.2–2
- 1Alonso homered to center (437 feet), Rutschman scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 64%
- ML WSH +168 / BAL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.6%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -180
- WSH +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 5.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +9 | WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +53 Elo | BAL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–17 | Road vs home | 23–2012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Elo rating | 149118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–33 | 41–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 21–23 |
| Underdog | 43–24 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–31–4 | 45–35–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 10–9 BAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 19.