Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Trey GibsonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10O'Hoppe reached on infield single to catcher, Schanuel scored.6–7
- 10Schanuel reached on infield single to second, Peraza scored on error, Schanuel safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Jackson.6–6
- 10Alonso singled to right, Ward scored, Henderson to third.6–5
- 8Meckler singled to right, Grissom scored and Schanuel scored, Guzman to second.5–5
- 8Grissom singled to left, Walton scored.5–3
- 3Basallo homered to right (373 feet), Alonso scored.5–2
- 3Alonso doubled to left, Taveras scored.3–2
- 2Basallo homered to right center (434 feet), Alonso scored.2–2
- 1Soler homered to left (366 feet), Meckler scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML BAL +102 / LAA -123
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- LAA: Elo 48.8%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- LAA -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −6 | BAL: Trey Gibson: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +8 Elo | BAL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–24 | Road vs home | 18–2125th of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 145829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–42 | 40–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–22 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 19–20 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 44–33–4 | 37–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 15–6 LAA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.