Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soler homered to left (391 feet).6–1
- 7Henderson tripled to right, Ward scored.6–0
- 6Jackson grounded into fielder's choice to third, O'Neill scored, Taveras third. Los Angeles Angels challenged call on the field was upheld.6–0
- 5Alonso hit sacrifice fly to center, Jackson scored.5–0
- 4Mayo homered to left (368 feet), Henderson scored and Alonso scored.4–0
- 1Ward homered to center (419 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML BAL -158 / LAA +131
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.9%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.9 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +27 Elo | BAL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3015–23 | Road vs home | 17–2025th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 145829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–41 | 39–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 19–20 | 34–26 |
| Overs–unders | 44–31–4 | 37–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 14–5 LAA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.