Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brett KerryPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Marte doubled to right, Lawlar scored and Vargas scored.1–8
- 3Troy singled to center, Lawlar scored.1–6
- 2Carroll homered to right (378 feet), Troy scored, Marte scored and Perdomo scored.1–5
- 2Troy tripled to center, Vargas scored.1–1
- 1Neto homered to center (431 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML LAA +144 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 60.3%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- ARI -155
- LAA +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +17 | LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +73 Elo | ARI 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–24 | Road vs home | 21–147th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 29th of 301458 | Elo rating | 149814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–38 | 40–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 31–24 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–39 | 29–39–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–6 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.