Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walton homered to right center (401 feet).3–4
- 7Perdomo doubled to left, Marte scored.2–4
- 7Smith homered to right (384 feet).2–3
- 5Trout homered to right (371 feet).2–2
- 4Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Carroll scored.1–2
- 1Moreno reached on infield single to third, Perdomo scored.1–1
- 1Adell doubled to right, Trout scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML LAA +114 / ARI -137
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −7 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +43 Elo | ARI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3012–23 | Road vs home | 20–137th of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 29th of 301455 | Elo rating | 150114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–38 | 40–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 29–24 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–37 | 29–37–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–5 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.