Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4
- Merrill KellyPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walton hit a ground rule double, O'Hoppe scored.7–0
- 6Trout doubled to left, Guzman scored, O'Hoppe to third.6–0
- 5Trout homered to center (436 feet), Neto scored.5–0
- 4Walton singled to right, Guzman scored, O'Hoppe thrown out at home.3–0
- 3Neto homered to left (421 feet).2–0
- 2Meckler singled to center, Adell scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML LAA -106 / ARI -114
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.3%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +58 Elo | ARI 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–24 | Road vs home | 21–137th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 29th of 301454 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–38 | 40–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–38 | 29–38–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–6 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.