Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting1-3
- Ryan JohnsonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 1Bolte hit sacrifice fly to center, Wilson scored.0–5
- 1Soderstrom homered to left center (402 feet).0–4
- 1Langeliers homered to center (430 feet), Gelof scored and Kurtz scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 63%
- ML LAA +161 / ATH -197
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 58.3%, market 63.4%
- Fair odds
- ATH -173
- LAA +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +18 | LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +58 Elo | ATH 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 63.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–25 | Road vs home | 16–2126th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 29th of 301455 | Elo rating | 147527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–39 | 39–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 31–25 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–39–1 | 36–34–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 22–21 ATH in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 43.