Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Denzer GuzmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-3
- J.T. GinnPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Guzman homered to left (376 feet).7–0
- 6Schanuel doubled to right, Heineman scored and Neto scored.6–0
- 6Neto doubled to left, Walton scored and Siri scored, Heineman to third.4–0
- 2Siri hit sacrifice fly to left, Meckler scored.2–0
- 2Walton singled to right, Adell scored, Meckler to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 59%
- ML LAA +134 / ATH -162
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 56.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -145
- LAA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 5.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +13 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +45 Elo | ATH 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–27 | Road vs home | 18–2125th of 30 |
| 7th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 29th of 301452 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–40 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–40–1 | 37–35–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 22–23 ATH in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 45.