Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kurtz walked, Butler scored, Gelof to second, Bolte to third.11–12
- 9Heim homered to right (360 feet), Soderstrom scored.11–11
- 8Muncy homered to center (426 feet), Butler scored.11–9
- 7Wilson homered to left (395 feet), Soderstrom scored.11–7
- 6Gelof singled to left, Butler scored.11–5
- 6Schanuel homered to right (362 feet).11–4
- 5O'Hoppe homered to left center (396 feet), Adell scored and Peraza scored.10–4
- 4Neto homered to left center (401 feet).7–4
- 4Siri homered to left center (444 feet), O'Hoppe scored and Meckler scored.6–4
- 4Guzman homered to left (433 feet), Peraza scored.3–4
- 4Moore hit sacrifice fly to center, Schanuel scored.1–4
- 3Cortes grounded out to second, Soderstrom scored, Wilson to third.0–4
- 3Wilson doubled to left, Langeliers scored, Soderstrom to third.0–3
- 3Langeliers doubled to center, Gelof scored.0–2
- 2Butler homered to center (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 58%
- ML LAA +130 / ATH -157
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- ATH: Elo 49.1%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- ATH -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 5.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −44 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 2.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +6 Elo | LAA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–26 | Road vs home | 17–2126th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 29th of 301453 | Elo rating | 147825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–40 | 40–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–40–1 | 36–35–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 22–22 ATH in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 44.