Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alexander homered to left center (390 feet), Taveras scored.12–1
- 7Alonso homered to right center (398 feet), Jackson scored and Henderson scored.10–1
- 7Jackson doubled to right, Alexander scored.7–1
- 4Cowser singled to center, Alonso scored and Ward scored, Mayo to second.6–1
- 3Cowser homered to center (406 feet).4–1
- 2Ward homered to center (388 feet).3–1
- 1Muncy singled to left, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.2–1
- 1Cowser singled to left, Henderson scored, Basallo to second, Alonso to third.2–0
- 1Basallo singled to right, Ward scored, Alonso to second, Henderson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML BAL +194 / LAD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.4%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -208
- BAL +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −13 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +81 Elo | LAD 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3014–23 | Road vs home | 26–132nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 15741st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–41 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 35–38 |
| Underdog | 18–20 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 43–31–4 | 34–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 5–6 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.