Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trey GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rushing singled to right, Call scored on error and Ward scored on throwing error by right fielder O'Neill.5–6
- 9Betts homered to left (378 feet).5–4
- 7Jackson singled to right, Cowser scored and Mayo scored, Holliday to second.5–3
- 6Alonso homered to left center (375 feet).3–3
- 6Henderson homered to right (375 feet), Holliday scored.2–3
- 2Pages doubled to left, Freeland scored. Baltimore Orioles challenged call on the field was upheld0–3
- 1Muncy singled to right, Tucker scored and Betts scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML BAL +182 / LAD -224
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.0%, market 66.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -195
- BAL +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −13 | BAL: Trey Gibson: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +108 Elo | LAD 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 26th of 3013–22 | Road vs home | 25–122nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 15751st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–41 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 35–36 |
| Underdog | 16–20 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 42–30–4 | 33–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–5 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.