Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Blaze AlexanderBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeman scored on error, Edman safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Taveras, Betts safe at third on error.3–2
- 9Ohtani homered to center (413 feet).3–1
- 4Alexander doubled to left, Taveras scored and Cowser scored, Mayo to third.3–0
- 2Mayo grounded into fielder's choice to first, Taveras scored, Cowser out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML BAL +230 / LAD -288
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 68.5%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -245
- BAL +245 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.0 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +19 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +135 Elo | LAD 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 26th of 3013–23 | Road vs home | 26–122nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 15761st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–41 | 38–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 35–37 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 43–30–4 | 34–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–6 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.