Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Denzer GuzmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto homered to left (391 feet), Siri scored.9–7
- 8Guzman homered to center (416 feet), Grissom scored and Schanuel scored.7–7
- 7Kurtz homered to center (437 feet), Gelof scored.4–7
- 5Siri scored on Perkins wild pitch, Meckler to third on wild pitch by Perkins.4–5
- 5Siri scored on Perkins wild pitch, Meckler to third on wild pitch by Perkins.4–5
- 4Kurtz singled to right, Gelof scored on error, Kurtz safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Adell.3–5
- 2Walton homered to right (391 feet), Schanuel scored and Guzman scored.3–4
- 1Bolte singled to right, Soderstrom scored, Meneses to second.0–4
- 1Meneses singled to left, Wilson scored, Soderstrom to second.0–3
- 1Heim hit sacrifice fly to center, Kurtz scored, Wilson to third.0–2
- 1Soderstrom walked, Gelof scored, Wilson to second, Kurtz to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 55%
- ML LAA +113 / ATH -136
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- ATH: Elo 55.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +7 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +36 Elo | ATH 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 18–2226th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 29th of 301456 | Elo rating | 147527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–40 | 40–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–41–1 | 37–36–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 23–23 ATH in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 46.