Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Leody TaverasBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Taveras singled to center, Henderson scored, Basallo to second.1–5
- 5Soler hit sacrifice fly to center, Grissom scored.0–5
- 5Grissom singled to left, Siri and Neto scored.0–4
- 1Schanuel homered to right center (382 feet), Neto scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML BAL -143 / LAA +119
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -129
- LAA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +33 Elo | BAL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 17–2125th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 16th of 301494 | Elo rating | 145529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–41 | 39–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 19–20 | 34–27 |
| Overs–unders | 44–32–4 | 37–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 15–5 LAA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.