Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Nationals- Jorbit VivasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9García Jr. homered to center (404 feet).14–9
- 9Turner singled to right, Sosa scored, Crawford to third.14–8
- 9Sosa doubled to center, Rincones Jr. scored and Realmuto scored.13–8
- 9Stott homered to right (403 feet), Harper scored and Hill scored.11–8
- 9Marsh homered to right (400 feet), Turner scored.8–8
- 8Vivas homered to center (410 feet), García Jr. scored and Crews scored.6–8
- 8Realmuto doubled to right, Marsh scored, Stott scored and Stubbs scored.6–5
- 7Sosa grounded into fielder's choice to third, Stott scored, Rincones Jr. out at second.3–5
- 5Sosa homered to center (406 feet), Stott scored.2–5
- 4Tena singled to left, Vivas scored and Nuñez scored, Tena to second.0–5
- 4Nuñez singled to left, Chaparro scored and Crews scored, Vivas to third.0–3
- 2Young grounded into double play, third to second to first, Crews scored, Vivas out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML PHI -192 / WSH +157
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.5%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -169
- WSH +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +15 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: PJ Poulin: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.27th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–42nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 17–2228th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301527 | Elo rating | 147825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–44 | 49–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40–5 | 47–28–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 26–17 WSH in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.