Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alan RangelPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mead homered to left (390 feet), Wood scored.1–4
- 7Marsh homered to right (376 feet).1–2
- 2García Jr. homered to right center (427 feet).0–2
- 1Crews singled to left, Wood scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML PHI +105 / WSH -127
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 45.9%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -115
- PHI +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −2 | PHI: Tim Mayza: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 13th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.28th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 16–2228th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–43 | 48–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39–5 | 47–27–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 26–16 WSH in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.