Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting3-5
- Trevor RogersPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mayo doubled to left, Ward scored, Alonso to third.1–3
- 5Ruiz singled to center, Young scored.1–2
- 4Alexander singled to left, Mayo scored and O'Neill scored, Holliday to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML WSH +118 / BAL -143
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +24 Elo | BAL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 9th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–16 | Road vs home | 22–1912th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 28th of 301473 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–32 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 20–22 |
| Underdog | 42–23 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–29–4 | 45–33–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 9–8 BAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 17.