Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Derek HillBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson PalmquistPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hill homered to right center (382 feet), Stubbs scored.5–4
- 6Mead homered to left (394 feet), Crews scored.3–4
- 4Rincones Jr. singled to center, Stott scored.3–2
- 4Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored, Stott to third.2–2
- 4Stott doubled to right, Marsh scored, Bohm to third.1–2
- 2Vivas homered to right center (403 feet).0–2
- 1García Jr. homered to center (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -126 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.5%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −4 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +24 Elo | PHI 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.17th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 17–2329th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301530 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–44 | 49–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–33 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40–5 | 48–28–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 27–17 WSH in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 44.