Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hill homered to left center (441 feet), Realmuto scored.10–5
- 9Realmuto doubled to center, Marsh scored.8–5
- 9Harper homered to left center (390 feet), Stubbs scored.7–5
- 7Bohm grounded into fielder's choice to second, Schwarber scored, Marsh out at second, Harper to third.5–5
- 7Marsh walked, Turner scored, Harper to second, Schwarber to third.4–5
- 7Harper walked, Crawford scored, Schwarber to second, Turner to third.3–5
- 6Marsh homered to right center (420 feet), Harper scored.2–5
- 3Young singled to center, Crews scored.0–5
- 1Nuñez singled to center, Lile scored.0–4
- 1Young grounded out to third, Crews scored, Lile to second.0–3
- 1Lile singled to right, Chaparro scored, Crews to third.0–2
- 1Mead homered to left center (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML PHI -179 / WSH +148
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.2%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −4 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +58 Elo | PHI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.18th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 17–2429th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301531 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–45 | 50–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–34 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 42–22 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41–5 | 48–29–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 28–17 WSH in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 45.