Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Chadwick TrompBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lile singled to right, Crews scored.4–3
- 8Basallo singled to right, Alonso scored.3–3
- 8Alonso doubled to left, Tromp scored.3–2
- 6Millas singled to left, Vivas scored.3–1
- 5García Jr. homered to right (418 feet).2–1
- 2Tromp singled to right, Jackson scored.1–1
- 2Vivas singled to left, Lile scored, Vivas to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML WSH -101 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.3%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +15 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +51 Elo | BAL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 23–1910th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 28th of 301471 | Elo rating | 149216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–33 | 41–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 21–22 |
| Underdog | 42–24 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–30–4 | 45–34–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 9–9 BAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 18.