Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Jacob GonzalezBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-3
- Shane BazPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gonzalez scored on error and Antonacci scored on error, Teel safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Alexander.8–2
- 9Gonzalez singled to center, Peters scored and Meidroth scored.6–2
- 8Grichuk singled to center, C. Montgomery scored, Grichuk to second.4–2
- 8C. Montgomery doubled to center, Antonacci scored.3–2
- 3Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to left, Alexander scored.2–2
- 3Teel reached on infield single to shortstop, Gonzalez scored, Vargas out at home on runner's fielder's choice.2–1
- 3Gonzalez doubled to center, Meidroth scored.1–1
- 1Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to left, Henderson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML CHW +113 / BAL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -123
- CHW +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +7 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +39 Elo | BAL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 3015–25 | Road vs home | 23–2113th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Elo rating | 148919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–41 | 41–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 21–24 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–33–2 | 46–35–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–19 BAL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 22.