Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Jensen doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.5–4
- 3Collins doubled to right, Marte scored.4–4
- 2Teel singled to left, Antonacci scored and Vargas scored, Teel to second.3–4
- 2Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Tolbert scored, Thomas to third.3–2
- 2Thomas singled to left, Collins scored, Tolbert to second.2–2
- 1Vargas homered to left center (407 feet), Antonacci scored.1–2
- 1Jensen singled to left, Thomas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 55%
- ML KC +114 / CHW -137
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CHW: Elo 52.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | KC: Luinder Avila: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +21 Elo | CHW 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.28th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–28 | Road vs home | 28–132nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 148224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–41 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41–2 | 46–33–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 31–17 CHW in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 35 of 48.