Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Junior PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Alonso singled to left, Beavers scored.9–3
- 5Beavers doubled to right, Henderson scored.9–2
- 4Gonzalez doubled to center, Peters scored.9–1
- 3Perez homered to center (409 feet), Peters scored and Gonzalez scored.8–1
- 3Gonzalez singled to left, B. Montgomery scored and Meidroth scored, Peters to third.5–1
- 3C. Montgomery homered to right center (440 feet), Benintendi scored.3–1
- 1Basallo singled to right, Henderson scored, Alonso to second.1–1
- 1Benintendi doubled to right, Teel scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML CHW +124 / BAL -149
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.3%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -134
- CHW +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.9 – 5.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −17 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trey Gibson: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +9 Elo | BAL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3016–25 | Road vs home | 23–2217th of 30 |
| 11th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 21st of 301484 | Elo rating | 148620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–41 | 41–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 36–25 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 48–33–2 | 47–35–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–19 BAL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 23.