Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jose TrevinoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Friedl singled to right, McLain scored, Trevino to third.7–2
- 7Friedl homered to center (395 feet).6–2
- 6Turang doubled to left, Chourio scored.5–2
- 5Mitchell homered to left (366 feet).5–1
- 4Trevino homered to left (358 feet), Suárez scored and Marte scored.5–0
- 4Marte singled to center, Bleday scored, Suárez to second.2–0
- 1Stewart homered to right center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 66%
- ML CIN +178 / MIL -219
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -191
- CIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 2.8 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +18 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +108 Elo | MIL 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 29–174th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15692nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–41 | 48–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 29–29 |
| Underdog | 31–23 | 19–7 |
| Overs–unders | 49–35–1 | 37–44–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 12–33 MIL in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 45.