Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Suárez reached on infield single to third, Stewart scored.8–5
- 4Alonso singled to left, Rutschman scored.8–4
- 4Rutschman doubled to right, Alexander scored and Holliday scored.7–4
- 4Alexander singled to right, Cowser scored and Taveras scored, Holliday to third.5–4
- 2De La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored.3–4
- 2Friedl tripled to right, Trevino scored.3–3
- 2Trevino doubled to right, Steer scored.3–2
- 1Suárez singled to center, Stewart scored.3–1
- 1Basallo homered to right center (406 feet), Henderson scored and Alonso scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML BAL +105 / CIN -126
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.8%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | 0 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +1 Elo | BAL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 19–2324th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 20th of 301487 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–46 | 45–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 20–20 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders | 48–37–4 | 50–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–4 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.