Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Basallo homered to left center (375 feet), Rutschman scored.3–0
- 1Alonso struck out looking, Henderson scored on throwing error by catcher Stephenson, Ward stole third.1–0
- 1Henderson scored on throwing error by catcher Stephenson, Ward stole third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML BAL -123 / CIN +102
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 49.7%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -111
- CIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −14 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +2 Elo | CIN 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–25 | Road vs home | 19–2223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 20th of 301485 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–46 | 45–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–26 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 20–20 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders | 48–36–4 | 50–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 5–4 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.